President-elect Donald Trump and his allies are promising a whirlwind of activity on January 20th, with a barrage of executive orders expected to be signed within hours of his swearing-in, and likely many more to follow in the subsequent days.
The president-elect and top aide Stephen Miller have separately indicated that the total number of executive actions could reach around 100, signaling an aggressive start to Trump’s second term.
‘Immediate’ impact on immigration and energy
“It’s going to be immediate,” Trump has said, especially regarding immigration.
For investors and business leaders alike, understanding Trump’s initial moves is critical as they could have an immediate impact on certain industries and sectors of the economy.
While energy is set for a significant focus right from the start, there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the exact path Trump will take on other topics, especially on tariffs, leaving markets and businesses bracing for potential rapid changes in policy.
Four key areas of focus, with tariffs as a ‘wildcard’
“We think Trump’s day 1 EOs will be focused on four topics: Immigration, deregulation, bureaucracy reform, and — possibly — tariffs,” Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research, told Yahoo Finance, highlighting the key areas of policy action that are most likely to be targeted by the new administration.
Marcus described tariffs as the “big wildcard,” underscoring the unpredictable nature of Trump’s plans in that area.
With the president-elect’s team having announced two key moments on Inauguration Day itself where he may take action, including a signing room ceremony on Capitol Hill soon after being sworn in and a second Oval Office signing ceremony later in the day, the first few hours and days of Trump’s second presidency are set to be a whirlwind.
Immigration: a comprehensive border security package
While Trump’s initial actions will heavily focus on immigration, he intends to quickly implement what Miller described as “the most comprehensive border security package in American history,” which could include new immigration raids and a move to shut down the US-Mexico border.
These actions, as well as Trump’s plans for mass deportations, could have far-reaching economic consequences.
“Drill, baby, drill” agenda for energy
Another key area of immediate action is energy, where Trump has promised a “drill, baby, drill” agenda, aimed at empowering fossil fuel companies.
Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, noted in a call with reporters that Trump could quickly reverse Biden’s pause on liquefied natural gas exports, as well as alter rules surrounding electric vehicles and tailpipe emissions.
While Trump has vowed to reverse Biden’s move earlier this month to “permanently” protect more than 625 million acres of the US ocean from offshore drilling, it remains unclear whether that will be addressed on day one, or further into his presidency.
Sommers believes that Trump has the authority to reverse the decision on day one, and that his organization is prepared to defend that in court if the move is challenged.
Uncertainty remains over tariffs
While Trump’s intentions on energy are clear, his approach to tariffs is less certain.
Although Trump had previously promised to impose 25% tariffs on all products coming from Mexico and Canada, his administration has seemingly explored a more gradual approach to tariffs, potentially influenced by the prospect of a sell-off on Inauguration Day, as well as a desire to maintain political flexibility.
One of the most aggressive options under consideration would be to declare a national emergency using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which would allow Trump to impose tariffs immediately, but would also open the move to legal challenges.
Other potential actions: crypto, TikTok, student loans
Beyond these key areas, Trump and his team are expected to take action on various other issues.
He is expected to focus on the federal bureaucracy, looking to bring government workers under his administration’s direct control.
Amid recent drama surrounding TikTok, Trump has said he will issue an executive order to extend the deadline before the app’s potential ban takes effect, hoping to “make a deal to protect our national security.”
He has also indicated that he will look to reverse many of Biden’s moves regarding student loan forgiveness, though the details of how he will do so remain unclear.
Other moves, such as pardoning Trump supporters convicted in the January 6th Capitol attack, are also a possibility.
Finally, Trump will also seek to fill key positions, beginning the process of sending a long list of nominees to the Senate, such as anticipated Treasury nominee Scott Bessent who, during his confirmation hearing this week, discussed tariffs and the Federal Reserve.
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