Brazil’s Petrobras shares have faced intense selling pressure, largely driven by rising global risk aversion and a sharp drop in oil prices.
US President Donald Trump’s recent move to impose stricter tariffs on Chinese products has reignited fears of a potential trade war, escalating tensions across global markets.
Brent crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in nearly four years.
The decline has not only weighed heavily on oil prices but has also dealt a significant blow to Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant.
Petrobras’ losses have been substantial, especially considering the country’s already fragile internal political situation.
However, some analysts argue that commodity-related firms like Petrobras could still offer attractive investment opportunities at current valuations — provided the market stabilizes.
The company’s stock has fallen 9.18% over the past four weeks and is down 17.27% over the last 12 months.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro model forecasts and analysts’ expectations, Petrobras shares are projected to reach R$36.89 by the end of this quarter and R$34.48 within a year.
A deteriorating share price
According to local media outlet InfoMoney, Petrobras preferred shares (PETR4) have faced sustained selling pressure since hitting an all-time high of R$38.66 in February this year.
In recent weeks, the stock has recorded significant losses, breaking critical support levels and diverging sharply from key moving averages. These technical patterns reinforce a pessimistic short-term outlook for the stock.
A closer look at Petrobras’s technical indicators shows the extent of the selling pressure.
After plunging 3.56% in the latest trading session, shares have now dropped to R$32.00, reflecting a 13.89% decline in April and an 11.58% decrease since the start of the year.
The breach of R$33.90, combined with the loss of key moving averages (9, 21, and 200-period), strengthens the negative momentum that investors are currently witnessing.
Technical indicators and future projections
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) now sits at 22.91, signaling that the asset is nearing oversold territory.
This could set the stage for potential technical rebounds, although broader market conditions remain highly uncertain.
Despite some optimism about a technical recovery, Petrobras’ near-term outlook remains clouded by trade war tensions, weak oil prices, and volatile market sentiment.
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