Bitcoin price has been locked in a month-long consolidation, hovering around $84,000-$86,000, and investors are on the lookout with Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.
After a sharp 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,000 in January, Bitcoin (BTC) found a tentative floor above $76,000 on March 10, after which it made a bullish attempt that was curtailed just above $88k on March 24.
Bitcoin price then saw a sharp drop to above $81,430 on March 31, from where it has been trying to recover.
At press time, the BTC price was $84,769.87.
Looking at the trend, there has been a pattern of higher lows; $76,000 on March 10 and $81,430 on March 31 hinting at a potential bottom.
However, with trading momentum subdued and external pressures looming, the Bitcoin price remains at a crossroads.
US recession fears already being reflected in Bitcoin price
The market’s indecision reflects a blend of cautious optimism and lingering uncertainty.
In a recent report, Bitwise analysts note that it is “quite likely that Bitcoin is going to stay under pressure if equity downside continues.”
The Bitwise analysts also note that “US recession fears are already being priced into Bitcoin and other cryptoassets as we speak, but there might still be a little bit more downside left if a US recession actually materialises.”
Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down by about 27% from its peak, suggesting that most of the recession fears are already reflected in the price.
This sentiment is echoed by the current neutral-to-bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 46.82.
However, despite this, on-chain data paints a more hopeful picture: the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has dipped to below 1, per CryptoQuant, signaling that short-term holders are holding rather than selling at a loss.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio by CryptoQuant.
This shift suggests growing confidence, potentially setting the stage for a Bitcoin price rebound.
Long-term holders are also showing resilience, adding another layer to the BTC narrative.
CryptoQuant’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric has fallen to 6.3 million, indicating that older coins are staying put.
Analyst “Banker” from CryptoQuant interprets this as a sign of strategic restraint, noting that long-term holders’ reluctance to sell could bolster the Bitcoin price trajectory.
Combined with declining inflows to Binance, which are down to just 1,811 BTC, this holding trend among both short-and long-term investors points to reduced selling pressure, a dynamic that historically precedes price stability or even a surge.
BTC inflow to Binance by CryptoQuant
Will the US Liberation Day tariffs tip the scales?
US President Trump’s proposed tariffs, set to be unveiled on April 2, 2025, during his “Liberation Day” announcement.
Bitget Research Institute’s Chief Analyst Ryan Lee recently highlighted how these tariffs are stoking interest in Bitcoin (BTC) as a safe-haven asset.
With fears of stagflation (rising costs outpacing growth), analysts from Deutsche Bank and Pepperstone caution that aggressive trade policies could weaken fiat currencies like the US dollar, driving investors toward BTC.
If inflation pressures mount, the Bitcoin price could see a demand surge, countering the recession risks flagged by Bitwise.
However, as noted by Bitwise analysts, if equity markets falter further under tariff-induced pressure (already down 4-5% weekly), BTC might face additional headwinds.
Notably, the Bitcoin price, currently struggling to break the 50-day SMA at $86,268, could retreat to test support near $82,692 if bearish sentiment resurges.
Ultimately, if Trump’s tariffs deepen economic uncertainty (exacerbating consumer confidence at a 12-year low, as QCP Capital notes), BTC’s safe-haven appeal could shine, driving inflows and lifting prices.
Conversely, if the tariffs amplify recession fears and equity selloffs, Bitcoin (BTC) might struggle to hold its ground, despite its bottoming signals.
For now, BTC remains in consolidation, a coiled spring awaiting a catalyst.
Whether tariffs spark a rebound or prolong the stagnation, the Bitcoin price story is far from over, with Liberation Day looming as a pivotal date.
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