The 2025 wheat production in Russia is projected to be 78.7 million metric tons.
This projection, which remains unchanged from SovEcon’s previous forecast, represents a decrease from the 82.4 million metric tons produced last year.
Rise in temperatures pose risks
The unseasonably warm weather currently being experienced in Russia has not yet had a major detrimental impact on wheat crops, however, there is still a heightened risk of potential damage.
The elevated temperatures could cause the wheat to develop too quickly, making it more susceptible to frost damage if colder weather returns.
Additionally, the warmer weather could lead to an increase in pests and diseases, which could further damage the crop.
While the current situation is not yet critical, it is important to monitor the situation closely and be prepared to take action if necessary to protect the wheat crop.
Impact on snow cover
The unusually warm weather experienced in Russia has had a significant impact on the snow cover that had accumulated late last year.
In the central regions of Russia, this warm weather has caused the snow cover to thin considerably.
Meanwhile, in the southern regions of the country, the snow has disappeared entirely due to the higher temperatures.
In contrast to these regions, the Volga region has maintained a relatively high level of snow cover, despite the unseasonably warm weather.
The unusual rise in soil temperatures across the Center and South regions has triggered premature vegetation in winter crops.
This anomaly poses a serious threat to the crops’ survival.
If frosts occur during this unseasonal vegetation phase or if there isn’t enough snow cover to insulate the crops, they could experience winterkill, leading to significant crop loss, according to SovEcon.
The lack of snow cover is particularly concerning as it leaves the crops vulnerable to the harsh winter conditions and extreme temperature fluctuations.
Risks from crust formation
Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said:
Another source of risk is ice crust formation in the Center.
Ice crust formation in the Center poses a significant risk to agricultural productivity.
This phenomenon occurs when melting snow refreezes, creating a hard layer of ice over the ground.
This ice crust can have detrimental effects on winter crops, impeding their growth and development, and ultimately leading to substantial yield losses.
In recent years, the severity and frequency of ice crust formation have increased, resulting in significant economic hardship for farmers in the affected region.
The changing climate, with its erratic weather patterns and fluctuating temperatures, is likely a contributing factor to this escalating issue.
As temperatures rise and fall, the snowpack melts and refreezes repeatedly, increasing the likelihood of ice crust formation.
This issue highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies in agriculture to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect food security.
Crops in poor condition
SovEcon’s estimates, based on Roshydromet (RHM) data, reveal that approximately 37% of crops were in poor condition as of November.
This is the highest percentage recorded in the past 20 years and indicates that the plants entered the winter season in a significantly worse state than usual.
Sizov added:
For now there are no cold temperatures in the short term forecast.
However, taking into account current weather setup and extremely poor crop conditions at the start of the winter any serious cold snap could lead to substantial winterkill.
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