Federal Reserve officials are edging closer to a long-awaited interest rate cut, with the latest minutes from their July meeting signaling that a reduction in September has become increasingly probable.
The July 30-31 meeting revealed a consensus among Fed officials that, provided economic data continues on its current trajectory, easing policy at the next meeting would be appropriate.
‘Vast majority’ of participants anticipate a rate cut
The minutes, released on Wednesday, highlighted that “the vast majority” of participants believed it would be suitable to lower the federal funds rate at the September meeting if economic conditions remained stable.
This potential rate cut would mark the first reduction since the emergency measures taken during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate steady at its July meeting, there was notable discussion among officials about the possibility of starting rate cuts sooner.
The summary mentioned that “several participants” had considered a 25-basis-point reduction (equivalent to 0.25%) at the July meeting, given the recent progress on inflation and the rising unemployment rate.
Although the term “several” suggests a relatively small group of officials, the minutes emphasized a general confidence among policymakers regarding inflation trends and a readiness to ease policy if conditions remain favorable.
What does recent inflation data say?
The recent data on inflation indicated a significant decrease in price pressures, reinforcing the view that inflation is moving sustainably towards the Fed’s 2% target.
On the labor market front, the minutes revealed some concerns.
Officials noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated, with a preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics revision suggesting that gains from April 2023 to March 2024 may have been exaggerated by over 800,000 jobs.
This uncertainty about the accuracy of labor data has contributed to growing concerns about the health of the job market.
Despite these mixed signals, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% — the highest in 23 years — was influenced by a balance of easing inflation and moderated job gains.
The initial market reaction to the Fed’s July meeting was positive, but subsequent sessions saw declines as investors worried about the pace of monetary policy adjustments.
The day after the Fed’s meeting, reports of an unexpected rise in unemployment claims and a contraction in the manufacturing sector dampened market sentiment.
Additionally, the July nonfarm payrolls report, showing only 114,000 new jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, intensified calls for a more aggressive rate cut.
However, recent data has alleviated some of these concerns.
Jobless claims have returned to historical norms, inflation pressures have continued to ease, and retail sales figures have surpassed expectations.
Despite ongoing concerns about the labor market, traders largely anticipate that the Fed will initiate rate cuts in September, aligning with the central bank’s cautious approach to managing economic stability.
As the Fed prepares for its September meeting, the evolving economic indicators will be crucial in shaping its decision on whether to adjust interest rates, signaling a significant moment for monetary policy and market expectations.
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